Calculator mechanisms

 
1

mixix

Member

4 posts

Member since November 2010

over 6 years ago

Before I jump into anything I like to do my research and unless I understand at least to some extent the mechanisms and logic behind I dont buy.

Here is my concern. I tried to replicate the mechanisms of your calculator and i could not get the same results, close, but not the same, which was weird. Heres how it went for me

  win home   win at house  
  house home   house home  
bet 10 9.84   10 9.84 bet
odds 3 3.1   3 3.1 odds
outcome 0 9.84   30 -30.504 outcome
5%   0.492   -0.504   profit
payout   9.348        
profit   -0.652        

If you input the same variables in the calculator you get that in both cases you should lose 0.65 ot 0.66 eur.. i get 0.5 eur. why?

Maybe there are other variables such as transaction costs that would make it right, if so please let me know.

Next, the problem of incosnistency only increase as I tried to scale the variables up to much greater bets and greater odds -

  win home   win at house  
  house home   house home  
bet 250 299.23   250 299.23 bet
odds 15.5 13   15.5 13 odds
outcome 0 299.23   3875 -3889.99 outcome
5%   14.9615   -14.99   profit
payout   284.2685        
profit   34.2685        

According to the calculator (variables- house: no freebet, bet 250, odd 15.5, main house: odd 13, comm 5%, minimum risk) one should bet 299.23 eur home and expect a return of 34.27 and 34.23 eur either way. while according to my, hopefully, wrong math here, id lose if won in the betting house.

Please clarify!

P.S If you want the same outcome in the latter example, you may bet 295.7 eur and get equal payoff of ~30.91 on both sides, but this doesnt ease my concerns that the calculator is a bit off..

Post edited by mixix on 07 December 2010, 20h42

 
 
2

jmpereira

Administrator

2538 posts

Member since October 2008

over 6 years ago

You're assuming wrong values for the odds, and that is causing a different result from the expected.

  • In a normal situation, the odds for the lay bet at Betfair are slightly higher than the odds at the Bookmaker. (Sometimes you may actually come across with a higher odd at the Bookmaker. That's called a Greenbook. It's a rare happening that enables you to profit either if you lose at the Bookmaker or at Betfair.) Nevertheless we will assume a normal situation and use a higher odd at Betfair, like this: Odd at Bookmaker= 3.2 // Odd at Betfair= 3.3

There are also other details that you should have in mind whenever you're looking for odds to bet on:

  • The difference between the odds at the Bookmaker and at Betfair must never exceed 0.15. Considering the odds i have mentioned above, the difference between odds is acceptable: 3.3-3.2 = 0.1 < 0.15
  • The odds should be higher than 3.0.

 

Considering these values, i will now analyze the calculator's input and output.

INPUT:

  • Odd at the bookmaker: 3.2
  • Amount to bet: 250€
  • Odd at Betfair: 3.15
  • Commission 5%

OUTPUT:

  • If you win on Betfair -19.70 
  • If you win on House -19.69 

This is the amount you will have to take from your bonus. This loss is caused by the 5% commission and by the difference between odds. By other words, you will maximize your gains if you manage to find closer odds.

These are the values calculated with the minimum risk level for these odds. However, you may increase the risk of your bet using the sliding bar. That helps you to reduce the minimum  possible amount from your bonus in case you win at Betfair. However, your losses will be a lot bigger in case you win at the Bookmaker. Thus i suggest you to stick to the default values.

  • Bet Amount: 242.42€ (This is the amount you have to bet at Betfair)
  • Available Betfair Balance : 569.69€ (The amount you must have available in your wallet in order to be able to wager the Bet Amount. - I suggest you to take a look at our Betfair Tutorial to understand why this is needed).

 

I hope i was clear enough! If you have any further questions just ask!

Cheers!

Double Betting Team | Administração Duplaposta.com

 
 
3

mixix

Member

4 posts

Member since November 2010

over 6 years ago

ok, it makes sense now why the second example failed- too large spread of odds. however, its not clear why my first example returns wrong result, since its odds are both higher than 3.0 and with spread smaller than 0.2, i.e. 3.1 and 3.1. why in this example i lose 0.65 at main house, but 0.5 on the betting house?

 
 
4

jmpereira

Administrator

2538 posts

Member since October 2008

over 6 years ago

It's simple! You were putting a much higher odd in the bookmaker comparing to the odd at Betfair.

Odd in the bookmaker = 15.5

Odd at Betfair = 13

You should have inserted the values in the opposite way:

Odd in the bookmaker = 13

Odd at Betfair = 15.5

As I said in the previous post: In a normal situation, the odds for the lay bet at Betfair are slightly higher than the odds at the Bookmaker.

Even if you find a higher odd at Betfair, the difference between the odds could never reach the offset of your values.

Double Betting Team | Administração Duplaposta.com