1
mixix
Member
4 posts
Member since
November 2010
Before I jump into anything I like to do my research and unless I understand at least to some extent the mechanisms and logic behind I dont buy.
Here is my concern. I tried to replicate the mechanisms of your calculator and i could not get the same results, close, but not the same, which was weird. Heres how it went for me

win home 

win at house 


house 
home 

house 
home 

bet 
10 
9.84 

10 
9.84 
bet 
odds 
3 
3.1 

3 
3.1 
odds 
outcome 
0 
9.84 

30 
30.504 
outcome 
5% 

0.492 

0.504 

profit 
payout 

9.348 




profit 

0.652 




If you input the same variables in the calculator you get that in both cases you should lose 0.65 ot 0.66 eur.. i get 0.5 eur. why?
Maybe there are other variables such as transaction costs that would make it right, if so please let me know.
Next, the problem of incosnistency only increase as I tried to scale the variables up to much greater bets and greater odds 

win home 

win at house 


house 
home 

house 
home 

bet 
250 
299.23 

250 
299.23 
bet 
odds 
15.5 
13 

15.5 
13 
odds 
outcome 
0 
299.23 

3875 
3889.99 
outcome 
5% 

14.9615 

14.99 

profit 
payout 

284.2685 




profit 

34.2685 




According to the calculator (variables house: no freebet, bet 250, odd 15.5, main house: odd 13, comm 5%, minimum risk) one should bet 299.23 eur home and expect a return of 34.27 and 34.23 eur either way. while according to my, hopefully, wrong math here, id lose if won in the betting house.
Please clarify!
P.S If you want the same outcome in the latter example, you may bet 295.7 eur and get equal payoff of ~30.91 on both sides, but this doesnt ease my concerns that the calculator is a bit off..
Post edited by mixix on 07 December 2010, 20h42
2
jmpereira
Administrator
2538 posts
Member since
October 2008
You're assuming wrong values for the odds, and that is causing a different result from the expected.

In a normal situation, the odds for the lay bet at Betfair are slightly higher than the odds at the Bookmaker. (Sometimes you may actually come across with a higher odd at the Bookmaker. That's called a Greenbook. It's a rare happening that enables you to profit either if you lose at the Bookmaker or at Betfair.) Nevertheless we will assume a normal situation and use a higher odd at Betfair, like this: Odd at Bookmaker= 3.2 // Odd at Betfair= 3.3
There are also other details that you should have in mind whenever you're looking for odds to bet on:

The difference between the odds at the Bookmaker and at Betfair must never exceed 0.15. Considering the odds i have mentioned above, the difference between odds is acceptable: 3.33.2 = 0.1 < 0.15

The odds should be higher than 3.0.
Considering these values, i will now analyze the calculator's input and output.
INPUT:

Odd at the bookmaker: 3.2

Amount to bet: 250€

Odd at Betfair: 3.15

Commission 5%
OUTPUT:

If you win on Betfair 19.70

If you win on House 19.69
This is the amount you will have to take from your bonus. This loss is caused by the 5% commission and by the difference between odds. By other words, you will maximize your gains if you manage to find closer odds.
These are the values calculated with the minimum risk level for these odds. However, you may increase the risk of your bet using the sliding bar. That helps you to reduce the minimum possible amount from your bonus in case you win at Betfair. However, your losses will be a lot bigger in case you win at the Bookmaker. Thus i suggest you to stick to the default values.

Bet Amount: 242.42€ (This is the amount you have to bet at Betfair)

Available Betfair Balance : 569.69€ (The amount you must have available in your wallet in order to be able to wager the Bet Amount.  I suggest you to take a look at our Betfair Tutorial to understand why this is needed).
I hope i was clear enough! If you have any further questions just ask!
Cheers!
Double Betting Team  Administração Duplaposta.com
3
mixix
Member
4 posts
Member since
November 2010
ok, it makes sense now why the second example failed too large spread of odds. however, its not clear why my first example returns wrong result, since its odds are both higher than 3.0 and with spread smaller than 0.2, i.e. 3.1 and 3.1. why in this example i lose 0.65 at main house, but 0.5 on the betting house?
4
jmpereira
Administrator
2538 posts
Member since
October 2008
It's simple! You were putting a much higher odd in the bookmaker comparing to the odd at Betfair.
Odd in the bookmaker = 15.5
Odd at Betfair = 13
You should have inserted the values in the opposite way:
Odd in the bookmaker = 13
Odd at Betfair = 15.5
As I said in the previous post: In a normal situation, the odds for the lay bet at Betfair are slightly higher than the odds at the Bookmaker.
Even if you find a higher odd at Betfair, the difference between the odds could never reach the offset of your values.
Double Betting Team  Administração Duplaposta.com